Thursday, September 15, 2011

2011 Emmy Predictions: Lead Actresses

Leading ladies.... the spotlight is yours!

Predicting who/what the TV Academy will vote for is a seemingly impossible task. They always seem to snub some of the most deserving nominees and go for some puzzling choices, but let's try to reason with the crazies anyway. All this week, I'll be breaking down my predictions in each of the major acting and series categories, finishing it off with my full predictions ballot at the end of the week.

Now that we've broken down the predictions for the Supporting Actors and Supporting Actresses, let's take a look at Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series and Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series. These ladies mean business, y'all...

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Laura Linney, The Big C
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation 

Let's just get this out of the way: the Academy loves to give this award to ladies from Showtime shows who are not funny. Toni Collette and Edie Falco have won this category the last two years, which probably indicates a Laura Linney victory come Sunday night. That's not to say those ladies aren't deserving of accolades for their performances, but in a category about comedy it's hard not justify why the Academy doesn't just bow down to the goddesses that are Tina Fey and Amy Poehler. In a perfect world, Poehler walks away with the Emmy. In the real world, it's a three-peat for Showtime.

Should Win: Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Will Win: Laura Linney, The Big C
Should Have Been Nominated: Courtney Cox, Cougar Town 

Kathy Bates, Harry's Law
Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
Mireille Enos, The Killing
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

This is one tough category. Elisabeth Moss had a remarkable season on Mad Men, and if we are going off performance alone she's your winner. But this is the Emmys, of course, and there's a lot more at play here. Kathy Bates was a surprise nomination, but not really if you consider that she's a big star and the TV Academy loves their big stars. So if we follow that reasoning to a logical conclusion, don't be surprised if Bates is up there with the trophy. Then again, Connie Britton is long overdue for some Emmy love and there are probably a lot of people looking to give Julianna Margulies the Emmy everyone thought she had in the bag last year (she lost to Kyra Sedgwick, who was left out of the race this year). Eight-time nominee Mariska Hargitay, who won in 2006, could always have a surprise win, too. But, aw heck, I'm going with my gut and giving Moss the rightful win.

Should & Will Win: Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Should Have Been Nominated: Katey Sagal, Sons of Anarchy

With so many talented women in these categories (and so much Academy politics associated with them), those were some difficult decisions. Who do you think should and will take home the Emmy in these two categories, and who was snubbed out of a nomination?

[Image Sources: AMC, CBS, FOX, NBC, Showtime]
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