Tuesday, February 21, 2012

2012 Oscar Predictions: Writing

Oscar Week is chugging along quite nicely, though it's still hard to believe the Academy Awards are this weekend. I've already laid out my predictions for Best Animated Feature Film and opened up the 2012 Oscar Contest. Now it's time to move on to two categories that could actually produce some excitement come Oscar night. Keep reading for my predictions in Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay) and Best Writing (Original Screenplay)...

The Descendants (Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash)
Hugo (John Logan)
The Ides of March (George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon)
Moneyball (Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin; Story by Stan Chervin)
Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy (Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan)

The only nominee I haven't seen in this category is Tinker, Tailor, though its chances seem to be pretty slim. As far as Hugo is concerned, I'm happy to see it take home some of the technical awards—the 3D world created by Scorsese and company was simply magical—but it is not a contender here in my eyes. And while I appreciated Ides much more than the Academy seemed to (this is its only nomination) and a surprise win would be fun, it doesn't really hold a candle to the two screenplays duking it out: Moneyball and The Descendants. Being a huge Aaron Sorkin fan, I absolutely loved Moneyball and thought it did an excellent job at taking two topics I rarely find interesting—economics and sports—and keeping me riveted the entire time. The momentum going into this weekend seems to be on the side of The Descendants, and though I very much enjoyed the Hawaiian family drama, I would love to see a surprise win for Sorkin, Zaillian and Chervin.

Will Win: The Descendants
Could & Should Win: Moneyball
Should Have Been Nominated: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius)
Bridesmaids (Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig)
Margin Call (J.C. Chandor)
Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen)
A Separation (Asghar Farhadi)

What sounds better than "Oscar nominee Kristen Wiig"? Well, "Oscar-winner Kristen Wiig," obviously. And perhaps a Bridesmaids victory here will be the shock of the night since most of the other categories are kind of locked in at this point. Unfortunately, we're most likely looking at a win for Woody Allen and Midnight in Paris, a film which many adored and I just couldn't wait to be over. If not Allen, look for Michel Hazanavicius to grab this award to go with his seemingly inevitable Best Director trophy. After all, writing isn't just about the words and The Artist was able to tell a moving story without a single one (kind of). If we're being honest, of course, 50/50 should absolutely be a nominee here, and a frontrunner at that.

Will Win: Midnight in Paris
Could Win: The Artist
Should Win: Bridesmaids
Should Have Been Nominated: 50/50

I'll be back tomorrow with my predictions in Supporting Actor and Actress. In the meantime, don't forget to enter the 2012 Please Welcome Your Judges Oscar Contest!
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